Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) seem to be multiplying daily, and evaluating how they might fit into your portfolio can be confusing.

ETFs give investors exposure to a group of securities, and trade on exchanges like stocks.  Most of us think of ETFs based on well known market benchmarks like the S&P/TSX index, but now ETFs can also be based on very specific sectors like natural gas, gold, REITs, etc…  and are often traded actively.

Outside of institutional investors, sophisticated investors with adequate time, knowledge and access to quality research, may be comfortable acting as their own portfolio manager.  However, most investors find they are better served by the biggest funds in Canada, which on the whole have delivered good returns, with more stability and less drama.

An actively managed portfolio is often more diversified amongst companies, sectors and geographic regions, avoiding many of the excesses and flaws inherent in simply tracking an index.  Unlike ETFs, many of the biggest funds have beaten the indexes over numerous time periods.   
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Canada is definitely in the global spotlight these days. Our financial system is envied by most, our currency is strong, and our natural resources are in demand. It should be no surprise then to find energy, financial, and material companies making up almost 80% of the TSX index. This kind of market concentration means that most Canadians portfolios are influenced by those three sectors.  Much of last year’s market rebound was focused on these very sectors; however, in the process the other side of the market received little attention and has yet to fully participate in the market recovery. Fortunately, that is good news as it means that there is still value in the market if you look hard enough.

While most Canadian’s investment exposure is in the big three sectors, attention should be paid to the other 20% of the index which offers potentially better opportunities for relative and absolute growth. Which sectors make up the other smaller half of the market? They are mostly less cyclical sectors like utilities, consumer staples, telecommunications, and health care. It is these sectors that were ignored last year and potentially offer better value going forward. Often in investing, the best opportunities are where no one is looking.
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Welcome to the next decade. Investors were tested to extremes this past decade; yet, wherever there is crisis, you can be sure there is opportunity close by. So as we all collectively stared into the abyss a year and half ago and our discipline was tested, we chose to focus and trust our independent analysis on the opportunities that were presenting themselves in 2008. The end result was a truly outstanding year for our Van Arbor Funds.

The Canadian Fund led the pack in 2009, doubling in value and more importantly outperforming the TSX Index by nearly 70%. The World Fund also stood out with its 43% return, beating the World benchmark index by nearly 35%. There is no doubt that 2009 offered better opportunities than most years; however, we like to look at the full two year cycle to gauge our performance over the down and up market.

The more important statistic we like to look at is the performance of the Funds since the  TSX  peaked in the summer of 2008. Since then, the  TSX remains 20% below its peak value, yet both the Van Arbor Canadian and World Fund have increased in value by nearly  40%  since  the  TSX peak. We are proud of that statistic because it exemplifies our focus on capital preservation alongside capital appreciation.
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Ever since the middle of September, even though it may not feel like it, the TSX Index has been trading in a flat range. Markets are essentially digesting this year’s big gains. Van Arbor has had a nice feast on material, energy, and cyclical companies for most of the year, but as of late we have been repositioning into companies with better current risk/reward prospects.

More recently we have been snacking on food stocks (pardon the pun) as well as high yielding telecom & utility stocks. These have been doing great relative to the market and should benefit from earnings momentum and developing macro trends. See the charts below to get an idea of why this is a stock picker’s market.

So with markets digesting, that begs the question: when is the next big meal? As opposed to business which is about creating opportunities; investing is all about spotting the best opportunities before everyone else. Usually 90% of a good trade is planning, while 10% is executing it.
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So with winter in full gear, how is Van Arbor positioned for the next couple of months? With the TSX index consolidating some of its gains over the last couple of months, we have become more selective to the point where the portfolio almost has no resemblance to a typical index portfolio.

Why? Given our expectations over the next two to three months; risk management, selectivity, and looking for new opportunities, are our main priorities moving into the New Year. Sometimes it pays to follow the crowd (read: index portfolio), but that time is not likely now.
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Loblaw’s reported very positive earnings this morning, helping solidify our thesis in the company. Below is our analysis on the company, which also translates to other companies that we own in the grocery industry.

Our key thesis on Loblaw’s can be summarized as follows:

- The company is trading at two decade low valuations and is one of the better bargains in the today’s market (see chart 1 and 2).
- The extremely low valuation is attributed to multiple years of negative news regarding operations and the industry; thus, like any value stock with low expectations, it does not take much to lift the price of the stock (see chart 3).
- A good example of a comparable company is Safeway, which we have been building a stake in lately for our World Fund. Another turnaround story which seems to have put in a multi year bottom and has begun to see some gains (see chart 4).
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Don’t worry, be happy….that you don’t own a passive Fund
 
 October Performance   (F Series, Net of Fees)

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What if I told you that you can buy shares in a company at a 20% discount to everyone else? Well that offer is now available only to Canadians, who due to a confluence of factors are the coolest kids on the currency block!

We all know how much attention the Loonie has been getting over the last couple of years, all of which is due to some very good reasons (Oil, Gold, Banking System, and Speculative Interest). However, there becomes a point when all that good news gets baked in (priced to perfection so to speak) and one has to look at the other side of the coin.
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Dow 10,000
It doesn’t seem long ago that we stared into the Abyss at Dow 6,500 (7 months ago), but here we are at that headline milestone (for the 27th time). So what if it is exactly the same value ten years ago (Dow 10,021 October 15 1999). The point is that we have seen a powerful cyclical rally off depressed levels. The question is there value left?

It is true that many company’s strong returns were due to them being at severely depressed values. It is also true that the rally has been mainly cyclical in nature via commodities, industrials, and materials. However, in all the excitement there has been a basket of companies which have been largely ignored, namely non-cyclical companies. In some instances, these companies are quietly doing a great job at the company level, but attention has been pointed elsewhere. Thus, today’s note highlights a few companies that we like and which offer excellent absolute and relative gains going forward as attention begins to be paid.

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Building on the last two quarters of positive performance, the Van Arbor Funds had another great quarter with the Canadian Fund returning 14.55% (TSX 9.65%) and the World Fund returning 8.25% (World Index 7.82%). With three fourths of the year complete, both Funds remain the top ranked Canadian Equity and Global Equity Funds in Canada over multiple time frames. Even though 2009 has been a great year so far, we would like to highlight the fact that both Funds are one of the best performing mutual funds (all classes) in Canada over the last 12 months. We highlight this, because although we are enjoying a strong year to date on the upside, we also managed the downside last year just as well. So, while markets are almost returning to their value last fall, both Funds are up just over 40% from before the crash. Just another reason why having an actively managed portfolio that focuses on capital appreciation as much as capital preservation matters in a market that may not favor passive investing.
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