So with winter in full gear, how is Van Arbor positioned for the next couple of months? With the TSX index consolidating some of its gains over the last couple of months, we have become more selective to the point where the portfolio almost has no resemblance to a typical index portfolio.

Why? Given our expectations over the next two to three months; risk management, selectivity, and looking for new opportunities, are our main priorities moving into the New Year. Sometimes it pays to follow the crowd (read: index portfolio), but that time is not likely now.
Read more…

Loblaw’s reported very positive earnings this morning, helping solidify our thesis in the company. Below is our analysis on the company, which also translates to other companies that we own in the grocery industry.

Our key thesis on Loblaw’s can be summarized as follows:

- The company is trading at two decade low valuations and is one of the better bargains in the today’s market (see chart 1 and 2).
- The extremely low valuation is attributed to multiple years of negative news regarding operations and the industry; thus, like any value stock with low expectations, it does not take much to lift the price of the stock (see chart 3).
- A good example of a comparable company is Safeway, which we have been building a stake in lately for our World Fund. Another turnaround story which seems to have put in a multi year bottom and has begun to see some gains (see chart 4).
Read more…

Don’t worry, be happy….that you don’t own a passive Fund
 
 October Performance   (F Series, Net of Fees)

Read more…